Indonesia
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May 07, 2024
Indonesia Q4 GDP Review: Robust Start to 2024
May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC
Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman
May 03, 2024
Indonesia CPI Review: Inflation Inches Down but BI on Alert
May 3, 2024 10:33 AM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation eased marginally to 3% yr/yr in April on the back of declining food prices. Despite the easing, food price remain the key inflationary factor. Additionally, imported inflation as the IDR comes under pressure could keep inflation elevated in the near term. Bank
April 29, 2024
Indonesia CPI Preview: Food Prices to Push Up CPI in April
April 29, 2024 1:25 PM UTC
Indonesia’s consumer price inflation in expected to continue to trend upward in April. Food prices, alongside higher transportation price growth will drive up inflation. Furthermore, increased demand during Ramadan will also weigh on headline inflation.
April 23, 2024
Indonesia: MPC Preview: Bank Indonesia to Hold Rate Despite Currency Volatility
April 23, 2024 11:12 AM UTC
With inflation within target range and the need to defend the currency amid global uncertainties and US dollar strength, Bank Indonesia (BI) is likely to extend its pause on rate adjustments in the upcoming monetary policy meeting on April 24. BI remains committed to stabilising the Indonesian rupia
April 22, 2024
Indonesian Court Delivers Verdict: Prabowo prevails
April 22, 2024 3:18 PM UTC
The Constitutional Court dismissed cases against Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and President Joko Widodo. In Gibran's case, the court didn't disqualify him from running for president but sanctioned the election committee for not amending regulations following a previous ruling. This ruling l
April 17, 2024
April 03, 2024
April 01, 2024
Indonesia CPI Review: Ramadan Demand Drives Up Inflation
April 1, 2024 1:33 PM UTC
Indonesia's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has revealed a notable acceleration in inflation, surpassing expectations and marking the highest rate since August 2023. The surge, driven primarily by heightened demand during the fasting month of Ramadan, highlights significant price pressures ac
March 27, 2024
March 25, 2024
March 22, 2024
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth
March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC
· In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy
March 18, 2024
Bank Indonesia to Retain Policy Rate
March 18, 2024 5:40 AM UTC
Bank Indonesia (BI) will likely maintain the key 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged in March at 6%, in line with recent trends. The stability of the rupiah remains a crucial consideration for BI, alongside CPI inflation, which has moderated within the new target band of 2.5+/-1%.
March 11, 2024
Elections to Keep Asia in Limelight in 2024
March 11, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
2024 is turning out to be a significant year for the Asian political scene. At the start of the year, eight countries were scheduled to hold elections this year, with close to 2.2bn people voting this year across emerging Asian economies.
With elections now over in four of the eight countries, the
March 07, 2024
Bank Indonesia to Look Beyond Recent Uptick in Consumer Price Index
March 7, 2024 4:06 AM UTC
Indonesia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicates a notable uptick in inflation, reaching 2.75% y/y in February compared to 2.57% y/y in January. The three-month high inflation rate was primarily propelled by surging food prices, aligning with expe
February 28, 2024
Indonesia Preview: CPI to remain broadly stable
February 28, 2024 3:29 PM UTC
Indonesia’s February inflation is likely to remain broadly stable. Food prices will maintain upward pressures but a tight monetary stance will keep headline inflation in check. Increased demand ahead of Ramadan could see prices spike in March.
February 22, 2024
Indonesia's Elections: Prabowo Subianto Emerges as Front-Runner
February 22, 2024 11:30 AM UTC
Prabowo Subianto emerges as the front-runner in Indonesia's recent national elections, securing a substantial lead of approximately 60% in preliminary sample counts, potentially avoiding a runoff and reducing political uncertainty. While his decisive victory provides him with political capital, conc
January 16, 2024
Indonesia: PDI-P To Maintain Power and Policies
January 16, 2024 9:17 AM UTC
Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous nation, is poised for a significant political transition as President Joko Widodo, widely known as Jokowi, is set to step down in early-2024 after a presidential election. Looking ahead to the upcoming legislative and presidential elections scheduled for
January 11, 2024
Webinar Recording December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 11, 2024 8:22 AM UTC
You can now access the webinar for the December Outlook here.
To read the individual chapters please see the weblink below.
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outloo
January 08, 2024
Charting our Views December Outlook
January 8, 2024 9:05 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
Economic Scenarios
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
Brazil Policy Rate and CPI Inflation (YoY, %)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing
January 05, 2024
Bank Indonesia Navigating the Path to Sustained Growth
January 5, 2024 10:17 AM UTC
Delving into the components of CPI, the December easing is attributed to a multifaceted slowdown in both food and utility prices. Disinflationary pressures from household equipment, restaurants, and personal care items contributed to the overall dip. However, information and recreation prices exerte
January 02, 2024
December Outlook: Rate Cuts Into 2024
January 2, 2024 9:53 AM UTC
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024 (here)
U.S. Outlook: Slower Growth to Sustain Improved Inflation Picture (here)
LatAm Outlook: Diverging Paths in 2024 (here)
China Outlook: Headwinds To China Growth (here)
Japan Outlook: Normalizing Monetary Policy Soon (here)
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook:
December 19, 2023
December 18, 2023
Outlook Overview: Rate Cuts Into 2024
December 18, 2023 3:42 PM UTC
· Uncertainty still prevails around this central view. The impact of lagged monetary tightening could be greater than our estimates and deliver mild recessions in some DM countries. We also feel that the disinflationary process could be stronger and this would help bring inflation back
October 23, 2023
Asia and Elections: Country Risk
October 23, 2023 7:29 AM UTC
Asia Regional Overview
India continues to be an investor haven supported by strong economic growth and stable policy guidance. The political environment is heating up in India as well, as the country prepares for regional elections in five states in end-2023 and then for the larger general elections
September 27, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Public Spending to be Catalyst
September 27, 2023 2:11 PM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Governments to Prop-up Growth
As in 2022, emerging economies in Asia demonstrated their continued outperformance compared to other emerging markets and exhibited greater resilience compared to developed
August 18, 2023
Indonesia's Narrowing Surplus Weighs on IDR
August 18, 2023 9:54 AM UTC
Figure 1: Indonesia Trade Balance (USD bn)
Source: Datastream
Shifting Trade Dynamics
Export performance has been a key driver behind the dwindling trade surplus. The data revealed that exports fell by 18% y/y, largely in line with our expectations. Notably, coal exports plummeted by 46.1% y/y, as de
August 09, 2023
Indonesia's Q2 2023 Growth Beats Expectations; Promising Outlook
August 9, 2023 12:37 PM UTC
Figure 1: Indonesia GDP growth (%)
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik
According to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), GDP growth accelerated from 5.04 y/y in Q1 to 5.17% y/y in Q2. Furthermore, the economy rebounded on a quarterly basis, expanding by 3.86% q/q, recovering from a 0.91% q/q contr
July 25, 2023
Bank Indonesia: Rate Hold Suggests IDR Stability a Priority
July 25, 2023 1:39 PM UTC
Figure 1: BI Main Policy Rate, Indonesia Consumer Price Inflation (%)
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and Bank Indonesia
In line with our view, Bank Indonesia extended its rate pause for the seventh consecutive meeting today, retaining its benchmark policy rate at 5.75%. The decision was in line with ma
July 21, 2023
Asia: Election Fever and High Inflation Impact
July 21, 2023 7:26 AM UTC
Alongside India, its neighbor Pakistan’s elections are due in October, which will likely stoke violence there. Indonesia too is gearing up for elections in early 2024 and the political landscape there is also tense. In the past quarter, political risks were elevated in Asia given unpopular policie
Asia Country Risk Ratings
July 21, 2023 7:15 AM UTC
Afghanistan
Afghanistan has a very-high overall risk. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (ruling political entity) is under the leadership of the Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun, and Islamic fundamentalist political movement. The presence of ethnic fragmentation, Islamic terrorist movement and human
July 14, 2023
Unleashing the Tempest: El Niño's Looming Threat to Asian Economies
July 14, 2023 9:37 AM UTC
Asia has emerged as a resilient region having faced a triad of shocks in the past year (Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening and commodity price rally), now faces a looming threat in the form of El Niño, with far-reaching consequences. Climate experts globally have highlighted a moderate to high r
June 21, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Defying Global Headwinds
June 21, 2023 11:01 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Datastream
Regional Dynamics: Capital Spending to Buoy Economies
As seen in 2022, emerging Asian economies will continue to outperform other emerging markets and prove to be more resilient than the developed economies. Asia is expecte
June 02, 2023
India: Improving Fiscal Health, but Risks Loom
June 2, 2023 6:50 AM UTC
India's fiscal deficit surged by 78.5% y/y in April (the first month of this fiscal year), reaching INR 1.3tn, according to data from the Comptroller General of Accounts (CGA). Viewed from the perspective of the FY24 budget, this deficit represents 7.5% of the estimate. The rise in the fiscal defici
May 25, 2023
Bank Indonesia: Extending Rate Pause
May 25, 2023 4:13 PM UTC
Figure 1: BI Main Policy Rate, Indonesia Consumer Price Inflation (%)
Source: Badan Pusat Statistik and Bank Indonesia
Bank Indonesia (BI) has announced its decision to keep the policy rates unchanged at 5.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting today, aligning with our expectations. This decision comes
March 28, 2023
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Asian Powerhouses Lead Post War and Post Pandemic Growth
March 28, 2023 9:58 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Worsening External Demand To Be A Drag
Slowing global trade and global economic growth will be drag on Asia’s growth story in 2023. Waning global demand for Asia’s key exports, especially for
February 27, 2023
Emerging Asia Faces Crosswinds
February 27, 2023 9:31 AM UTC
Indonesia: Lowest Trade Surplus Since May 2022
Indonesia’s trade surplus came in lower than market expectations as it dipped to $3.9bn in December 2022, from $5.1bn in November. The overall trade balance for Indonesia was at a record high of $54bn in 2022, on account of higher commodity prices duri
June 17, 2022
Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Resilience amid Evolving Geopolitical Shocks
June 17, 2022 10:04 AM UTC
Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Heightened Short-term Risks, Growth on Track for Medium Term
High vaccination rates and prudent localized restriction policies to tackle the surge of cases across Asian economies during the first q