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Markets: Fed Rather Than Middle East Worries
April 17, 2024 12:34 PM UTC
Global markets are being driven by a scale back in Fed easing expectations and we see a 5-10% U.S. equity market correction being underway. However, with the market now only discounting one 25bps Fed cut in 2024, any downside surprises on U.S. growth or better controlled monthly inflation numbers
China: Q1 Upside Surprise, but March Disappoints
April 16, 2024 8:33 AM UTC
Q1 GDP upside surprise was driven mainly by public sector investment. With the government still to implement the Yuan 1trn of special sovereign bonds for infrastructure spending, public investment will likely remain a key driving force. However, the breakdown of the March data show that retail s
Mexico GDP Review: 0.2% Growth but Still Subpar
April 30, 2024 5:54 PM UTC
INEGI released Mexico's Preliminary GDP for Q1 2024, showing 0.2% growth, slightly above expectations. Annual GDP slowed to 2.0% from 2.8% in Q4 2023. The economy is losing momentum due to tight monetary policy and weakened U.S. demand. Agriculture contracted by 1.1%, Industry by 0.4%, while Service
Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April CPI - Core rate not quite as strong as the preceding three months
April 30, 2024 5:15 PM UTC
We expect April CPI to rise by 0.4% overall for a third straight month but with the ex food and energy pace slowing to 0.3% after three straight months at 0.4%. We expect the strong start to the year to fade as the year progresses, though inflationary pressures will still look quite significant in A
U.S. April Consumer Confidence - Labor markets seen as less strong
April 30, 2024 2:23 PM UTC
April consumer confidence with a fall to 97.0 from 103.1 is weaker than expected and the lowest since July 2022. The easiest explanation for this is rising bond yields and fading expectations for rate cuts, though there are hints that the labor market is losing momentum too.
UK GDP Preview (May 10): Fragile Sideways-Moving Activity Continues?
April 30, 2024 2:19 PM UTC
The economy may have been in only mild recession in H2 last year, but the ‘recovery’ now evident is hardly much better with GDP growth only modestly positive. Admittedly, coming in as largely expected, and despite industrial action, GDP rose by 0.1% m/m in February accentuating the upgraded 0.
Canada February GDP - Q1 looking less positive than previously projected
April 30, 2024 1:20 PM UTC
February Canadian GDP saw a second straight rise, but at 0.2% was below the 0.4% projected with January’s data and January was revised down to a 0.5% increase from 0.6%. The advance estimate for March is unchanged, which would leave a 0.6% rise (2.5% annualized) in Q1.
U.S. Q1 Employment Cost Index - Acceleration will add to Fed concerns on inflation
April 30, 2024 12:46 PM UTC
The Q1 Employment Cost Index with a 1.2% increase is stronger than expected and like Q1 inflation data, breaks a trend of gradual slowing seen in late 2023 to produce a renewed acceleration, rising by its most since Q1 2023.
Preview: Due May 1 - U.S. April ADP Employment - Underperforming payrolls
April 30, 2024 12:10 PM UTC
We expect a 150k increase in April’s ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, which would be in line with recent trend, but continuing to underperform private sector non-farm payrolls, which we expect to rise by 195k. We expect overall payrolls to rise by 255k.
Eurozone Data Review: Less Weak But Soft Domestic Demand Taking Less Toll on Core Inflation?
April 30, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
According to revised official national accounts data, the EZ economy was in recession in H2 last year, albeit modestly so and against a backdrop of marked, if not increasing, national growth divergences. This geographical variation continued into Q1 (Figure 1) where the flash GDP reading exceeded ex