CBRT Lifts End-Year Inflation Forecast to 38%

May 9, 2024 10:22 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Central Bank of Turkiye (CBRT) released the second quarterly inflation report of the year on May 9, and lifted end-year inflation prediction from 36% to 38% citing that the rebalancing process for demand will be more delayed compared to what was projected that in the first inflation rep

Ukraine War Update: Major Russian Offensive is Expected This Summer Despite U.S. Military Aid

May 8, 2024 12:06 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The offensives at the front lines started to pick up steam after March/April as the Russian forces plan for their larger summer 2024 offensive operation, aiming to seize more territory before the U.S. presidential elections in November. In the meantime, U.S. approved a $61 billion warti

Indonesia Q4 GDP Review: Robust Start to 2024

May 7, 2024 1:22 PM UTC

Bottom line: Indonesia's Q1 GDP — released on May 6 — saw growth rebound to 5.1% yr/yr from 4.90% yr/yr in Q4 2023. While private consumption continued its ascent, government expenditure emerged as the key driver of Indonesia's growth narrative. Private consumption was supported by festive deman

Russian Economy Expands by 4.2% YoY in March, and 5.4% in Q1

May 3, 2024 2:14 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 4.2% YoY in March owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We now foresee Russian economy will expand by 2.6% in 2024

Turkiye’s Inflation Continues to Jump in April with 69.8%

May 3, 2024 7:40 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 3 that Turkish CPI ticked up 69.8% annually and 3.2% monthly in April due to increases in transportation, restaurant & hotel and education prices, coupled with the lingering impacts of the wage hikes on the services sector. We feel u

South Africa’s Fiscal Outlook Under Spotlights as the Elections Are Approaching

May 1, 2024 6:45 PM UTC

Bottom line: South Africa policy makers remain concerned about government debt trajectory, large domestic and international financing needs and elevated country risk premium before fast-approaching elections on May 29. We think South Africa’s general government fiscal balance and debt trajectory w

Headwinds To Long-term Global Growth

April 26, 2024 9:30 AM UTC

Bottom line: While much focus is on the cyclical economic position to determine 2024 monetary policy prospects, the 2025-28 structural growth trajectory differs to the pre 2020 GDP trajectory for major economies.  While global fragmentation has a role to play, aging populations are already having a

Sticky Inflation Causes Concerns over the Horizon

April 24, 2024 9:26 AM UTC

Bottom line: According to the Monetary Policy Review Report by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on April 23, the risk of higher inflation still remains and inflation returning to the midpoint of the target band is only expected in the last quarter of 2025. SARB highlighted in its report that ma

EM Europe/CIS: Country Risk Ratings

April 22, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia and Ukraine. 

Recent Polls in South Africa: ANC’s Popularity Continues to Decline

April 19, 2024 1:14 PM UTC

Bottom line: We continue to foresee two possible outcomes of South African presidential elections on May 29, either an African National Congress (ANC) win or a coalition government. According to recent polls, ANC is at the serious risk of losing its majority dipping below 50%, even as low as 37% acc

Services Surplus and Decreasing Trade Deficit Partly Heal Turkish Current Account Deficit

April 19, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye’s annualized current account deficits (CAD) stood at $31.8 billion as of February 2024 when compared to $37.6 billion a month earlier, driven by a marginal increase in the services surplus, a reduction in the gold trade deficit, and a recovery in net energy trade. We envisage

South Africa’s Inflation Softened to 5.3% in March

April 17, 2024 11:38 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on April 17, the inflation softened to 5.3% YoY in March from a four-month high of 5.6% YoY due to lower food and non-alcoholic beverages (NAB), alcoholic beverages & tobacco, transporta

Russian Economy Expands by a Strong 7.7% YoY in February

April 11, 2024 7:38 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to preliminary figures announced by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia's GDP grew by 7.7% YoY in February after expanding by 4.6% in January, owing to strong fiscal stimulus, high military spending, invigorating consumer demand and investments. We foresee R

Russia’s Inflation Remained Steady at 7.7% in March

April 10, 2024 8:21 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After hitting 7.4% YoY in January and December, the inflation rate remained stable at a one-year peak of 7.7% YoY in March after February. We think stubborn price pressures continue to be strong due to high military spending, currency weakening particularly after March 11, tight labour

Turkiye’s March Inflation Ticks Up to 68.5% Despite Continued Tightening

April 3, 2024 9:16 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on April 3 that Turkish CPI surged to 68.5% annually and 3.2% monthly in March, and annual inflation swung to a 16-month high due to increases in food and education prices, coupled with the lingering impacts of the minimum wage hike on the

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Election Spending to Drive Growth

March 22, 2024 12:18 PM UTC

·       In 2024, growth trends across emerging Asia will exhibit a mixed pattern. Encouragingly, there will be a resurgence in demand for global electronics following a period of stagnation in 2022‑23, which will provide a boost to regional trade. Moreover, the initiation of monetary policy

South Africa’s Inflation Hits 4-Months High in February

March 20, 2024 1:37 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on March 20, the inflation jumped to 5.6% YoY in February due to higher housing & utilities, miscellaneous goods & services, food and non-alcoholic beverages and transport prices, couple

Russian Presidential Election: Putin Moves Towards His Fifth Term in Kremlin

March 15, 2024 10:29 AM UTC

Bottom line: We foresee two possible outcomes of Russian presidential election on March 15-17, either a Putin win (99%) or a second round on April 7 (1%), despite the latter has a very small chance to occur. We think Putin will secure his fifth term in Kremlin despite there are alleged concerns that

Russia’s Inflation Remained High at 7.7% in February

March 13, 2024 9:33 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After remaining unchanged at 7.4% YoY in January and December, we saw an uptick in the inflation hitting 7.7% in February. We think stubborn price pressures continue to be strong due to high military spending, currency weakening, tight labour market, high salaries and benefits, and invi

Turkiye: AKP Wants to Win Major Cities Back on March 31

March 7, 2024 2:37 PM UTC

Bottom line: Unless something unforeseen occurs, we think Justice and Development Party (AKP) will likely remain the highest rated party in the Turkish local elections on March 31, winning more local municipalities than any other parties in Turkiye. Despite AKP’s main target is to win back the maj

South Africa’s Economy Expanded by a Moderate 0.1% in Q4

March 5, 2024 2:30 PM UTC

Bottom line: As we correctly predicted, South African economy grew by 0.6% YoY in 2023, and by a moderate 0.1% QoQ in Q4. According to Department of Statistics of South Africa’s (Stats SA) announcement on March 5, the supply side of the economy was largely fuelled by the manufacturing, transporta

Turkiye’s Closer to 70% Inflation in February Exceeds Expectations

March 4, 2024 3:10 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on March 4 that Turkish CPI surged to 67.1% annually and 4.5% monthly in February, and annual inflation swung to a 15-month high due to increases in hotel, education and food prices. We feel upside risks remain strong which would likely co

Exceeding Expectations: Turkish Economy Grew by 4.5% in 2023

February 29, 2024 12:28 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 29 that the economy expanded by 4.5% last year, and 4.0% YoY in Q4 2023 driven by the buoyant demand and lending, high government expenditure and investments during the election-and-earthquake-year. Despite strong Q4 figure, we

Strong Growth Trend Continues in Russia

February 28, 2024 5:59 PM UTC

Bottom Line: The Russian economy continued its strong growth trend, and expanded by 4.6% YoY in January 2024, thanks to high defense spending, continued consumer demand and lending, and growing wages, which also ignite increased demand and prices for products and services.

South Africa: Two Major Scenarios for Post-Elections

February 27, 2024 9:00 AM UTC

Bottom line: We foresee two possible outcomes of South African presidential elections on May 29, either a African National Congress (ANC) win or a coalition government. It appears ANC is at the risk of losing its majority as the recent polls suggest support for the ANC has dipped below 50%. Unless s

South Africa’s Inflation Started 2024 with an Uptick

February 21, 2024 1:16 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on February 21, the inflation jumped to 5.3% YoY in January due to higher fuel and food prices, after declining two consecutive months. Other key contributors to the inflation were relat

Russia’s Inflation Remains High at 7.4% in January

February 14, 2024 7:22 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After increasing seven months in a row till December 2023, inflation remained unchanged at 7.4% YoY in January after December. We think stubborn price pressures continue to be strong due to high military spending, currency weakening, tight labour market, high salaries and benefits, and

Ukraine War Update: The Struggle for Western Support

February 13, 2024 9:39 AM UTC

Bottom Line: As we expected, the deadlock in Ukraine continues to hold as of the winter months, and protracted conflict remains active as both sides continue to failure to gain ground. The support to Ukraine from the Western Block remains fragmented despite European Union (EU) leaders unanimously ag

Russian Economy Expanded by a Fast 3.6% in 2023, Rosstat Reports

February 9, 2024 8:47 AM UTC

Bottom Line: According to Russian Statistics Service’s (Rosstat) announcement, the Russian economy grew by a strong 3.6% in 2023 from a revised 1.2% drop in 2022, thanks to fiscal stimulus, increased defense spending to boost industrial production, continued consumer demand and lending coupled wit

Turkiye’s Inflation Roared Strong in January: Biggest Monthly Jump since August

February 5, 2024 8:57 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on February 5 that Turkish CPI surged to 64.9% annually and 6.7% monthly in January, which marked the biggest jump in the last five months, due to recent hikes in salaries and pensions, continued adverse impacts of deterioration in pricing

Current Account Deficit Continues to Give Pain to Turkish Economy

February 1, 2024 11:59 AM UTC

Bottom Line: Turkiye continues to struggle due to high current account deficits (CAD) in the recent years as it has been a structural feature of Turkiye's economy for far longer. Annualized CAD stood at $49.6 billion as of November 2023, partly due to trade deficit that slightly improved in 2023. We

Military Spending is Expected to Boost Russian Economy in 2024

January 31, 2024 1:08 PM UTC

Bottom Line: Russian war spending continues to boost Russian economy as military analysts expect Russian spending on defense will rise to around 6% of GDP in 2024 from 3.9% in 2023. We foresee Russian GDP to grow by 1.3% in 2024 since strong monetary tightening is expected to suppress demand and s

Climate Change: 2025-30 Rather than Long-Term Impacts

January 26, 2024 4:15 PM UTC

Bottom Line: In the 2half of the 2020’s GDP in DM economies will benefit from climate change investment, though the net positive impact will likely be modest on an annual basis. The impact on EM economies will be more mixed, as lack of fiscal space restrains the scale of green investment and some

South Africa’s Inflation Ended 2023 with a Promising Slow Down

January 24, 2024 1:29 PM UTC

Bottom Line: According to the inflation figures announced by Department of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) on January 24, the downward trend in the inflation continued in December with a 5.1% Yr/Yr reading, given slowing fuel prices and food prices, relatively less power cuts (loadshedding) an

South Africa’s Inflation is Expected to Further Slow Down in December

January 19, 2024 1:07 PM UTC

Bottom Line: After inflation decreased to 5.5% in November, we now foresee that the downward trend will continue in December and inflation will further slow down to 5.2% Yr/Yr given relatively less power cuts (loadshedding) and a stable Rand (ZAR) in December, coupled with dipped global oil prices.

January 18, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for EM Europe/CIS countries including Russia, Ukraine and Turkey. 

Russia’s Inflation Slightly Slows Down to 7.4% in December

January 12, 2024 10:21 PM UTC

Figure 1: CPI (YoY, % Change) and Policy Rate (%), January 2022 – December 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
According to Rosstat figures, prices of food, non-food products and services rose by 8.16%, 5.96% and 8.33% on an annual basis in December, respectively. The consumer price index (

Shipping Freight Cost Jump and Inflation – Some Perspectives

January 9, 2024 2:24 PM UTC

Figure 1: Freight Cost Surge in Perspective
Source: DataStream 
How Long?
Houthi rebels have been attacking some ships in the Red Sea in recent weeks.  The key question is how long this will last?  One line of thinking is that the Houthi attacks are part of Iran axis of resistance alongside attacks

AI and Technology Impact on Growth and Inflation

January 3, 2024 10:30 AM UTC

Bottom Line: The full benefits of the latest AI wave will likely not kick in until the late 2020/early 2030’s.However, 5G over the last couple of years has been enabling more connectivity via the Internet of Things and allowing more big data analysis, including AI tools and algorithms. In the 2hal

Turkiye’s Inflation Reaccelerated Fast in December to 64.8%

January 3, 2024 8:33 AM UTC

Figure 1: CPI (YoY, % Change) and Policy Rate (%), January 2021 – December 2023
Source: TUIK, Datastream, Continuum Economics
When annual rate of changes (%) in the CPI’s main groups are examined in December, we see that housing with 40.4% was the main group with the lowest annual increase while h

South Africa’s Load Shedding Remained a Strong Headwind in 2023

December 22, 2023 8:46 PM UTC

Figure 1: System Hourly Demand & Available Capacity, December 15- December 21
Source: Eskom  
(Note: When we compare hourly RSA contracted demand against available capacity to check what the amount of surplus/shortfall was in the past week; we see that available capacity could not match with the tot

Asia/Pacific (ex-China/Japan) Outlook: Going Big, Going Strong

December 18, 2023 10:05 AM UTC

Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
Regional Dynamics: Mixed Prospects in 2024  
In H1-2024, much like in 2023, the emerging economies in Asia will continue to outperform other emerging markets and display notable resilience in comparison to develope

EMEA Outlook: Inflationary Pressures Remain Strong

December 18, 2023 10:01 AM UTC

Our Forecasts
Source: Continuum Economics
Risks to Our Views
Source: Continuum Economics
EMEA Dynamics:  Inflationary Concerns Remain High
EMEA economies continue to be squeezed by macroeconomic problems such as elevated inflation and financial pressures. We think country specific factors, geopolitics,

Concerned with Accelerating Inflation, CBR Lifted the Key Rate by 100bps to 16%

December 15, 2023 3:47 PM UTC

Figure 1: Policy Rate (%) and CPI (YoY, % Change), December 2021 – December 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
In order to reduce inflation and inflation expectations, and to anchor inflation at the target level, CBR continued its tightening cycle in the fifth consecutive MPC meeting, and

Softer Fuel and Transportation Prices Helped South Africa’s Inflation Decelerate in November

December 13, 2023 1:43 PM UTC

Figure 1: CPI Inflation Rate (%, YoY), November 2021 – November 2023
Source: Datastream
South African inflation fell to 5.5% in November Yr/Yr partly driven by a monthly decrease of 5.5% in the fuel price index leading to the annual rate for fuel lower to 1.8% in November from 11.2% in October. In a

Russia’s Inflation Accelerates to 7.5% in November

December 8, 2023 7:47 PM UTC

Figure 1: Inflation Rate (%, YoY), November 2022 - November 2023
Source: Datastream, Continuum Economics
According to Rosstat on December 8, prices of food, non-food products and services rose by 1.55%, 0.53% and 1.23% on a monthly basis in November, respectively. The consumer price index (CPI) edged

AI and Technology Impact on Growth and Inflation

November 1, 2023 10:01 AM UTC

 The huge buzz around artificial intelligence has also raised a debate about the growth, jobs and inflation impact of this latest phase of the 4th industrial revolution (5G, AI, Internet of Things and Big Data)? What is the likely medium-term impact?
Figure 1: Survey of Impact on Global GDP Per Annu