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May 21, 2024

Asia Summary and Highlights 21 May
Freemium Article

May 21, 2024 4:37 AM UTC

RBA minutes highlighted tightening remains on table 
Australian telecommunications giant Telstra slashing up to 9% of its workforce

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 21st
Paying Article

May 21, 2024 4:21 AM UTC

Canadian CPI risks slightly on the downside
USD/CAD risks consequently on the upside
CHF and JPY under pressure, CHF the preferred funding currency
GBP gains to fade ahead of UK CPI

AUD/USD flows: Reversing early gains
Paying Article

May 21, 2024 4:18 AM UTC

RBA minutes highlighted tightening remains on table 
Australian telecommunications giant Telstra slashing up to 9% of its workforce

USD/JPY flows: Challenging pre-CPI high
Paying Article

May 21, 2024 3:58 AM UTC

Suzuki resume his verbal intervention

May 20, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 21st
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

Canadian CPI risks slightly on the downside
USD/CAD risks consequently on the upside
CHF and JPY under pressure, CHF the preferred funding currency
GBP gains to fade ahead of UK CPI

North American Summary and Highlights 20 May
Freemium Article

May 20, 2024 7:46 PM UTC

Overview - The USD saw gains versus the EUR in Europe and the JPY in North America in a day with no significant economic data.  

Preview: Due May 31 - Canada Q1/March GDP - A stronger quarter assisted by the end of strikes
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 3:52 PM UTC

We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to rise by 2.0% annualized, a little above a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s April Monetary Policy Report. We expect an unchanged monthly total for March, with Q1’s growth inflated by a January rebound from a strike-depressed Q4.

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 21st
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 3:06 PM UTC

Canadian CPI risks slightly on the downside
USD/CAD risks consequently on the upside
CHF and JPY under pressure, CHF the preferred funding currency
GBP gains to fade ahead of UK CPI

Preview: Due May 21 - Canada April CPI - Headline stable but core rates falling
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 12:15 PM UTC

April CPI will be closely watched as the last CPI release before the June 5 Bank of Canada meeting. We expect the yr/yr pace to be unchanged at March's 2.9% pace which was also the pace in January before February saw a brief dip to 2.8%. However we expect continued steady downward progress in the Bo

European Summary and Highlights 20 May
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 10:33 AM UTC

EUR/USD lost around 15 pips to 1.0870 in a quiet European morning.

Psychology for major markets May 20th
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 10:05 AM UTC

EUR/CHF hitting new 1 year highs. USD steady

FX Weekly Strategy: May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 8:55 AM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

JPY, USD, CHF, EUR flows: JPY soft, EUR pressing 1.09
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 6:42 AM UTC

JPY and CHF weak in quiet conditions, EUR/JPY highest since intervention

Asia Summary and Highlights 20 May
Freemium Article

May 20, 2024 4:29 AM UTC

Iran confirmed president Ebrahim Raisi and Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in helicopter crash
China’s LPR unchaged at 3.45% for 1yr and 3.95% for 5yr 

FX Weekly Strategy: Europe, May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 4:24 AM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

AUD/USD flows: China's LPR Unchanged
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 4:17 AM UTC

China’s LPR unchaged at 3.45% for 1yr and 3.95% for 5yr 

USD/JPY flows: Market focus on Iranian Helicopter Crash
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 3:52 AM UTC

Iran confirmed president Ebrahim Raisi and Minister of Foreign Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in helicopter crash

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

May 20, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly weaker against the USD as the greenback recoup partial post CPI losses. KRW saw the largest losses of 0.74%, followed by TWD 0.32%, PHP 0.25%, IDR 0.19%, THB 0.18%, CNH 0.15%, MYR 0.1%, CNY 0.04% and HKD 0.01%; the biggest winners are INR 0.20% and SGD 0.07%

May 19, 2024

FX Weekly Strategy: Asia, May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 19, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

FX Weekly Strategy: APAC, May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 19, 2024 5:00 PM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

May 17, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 17 May
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 7:37 PM UTC

Overview - The USD advanced in Europe but moved lower in North America in a day with little fresh news.  

FX Weekly Strategy: May 20th-24th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 3:18 PM UTC

USD to focus on PMIs after recent relative US weakness
JPY still has the most scope for gains
GBP upside limited as big drop in CPI expected
CAD may soften as CPI could allow BoC rate cut

Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. April Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit trending higher
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 1:13 PM UTC

We expect April’s advance goods trade deficit to sustain a slowly deteriorating trend, with the deficit rising to $93.0bn from $90.5bn, reaching its highest level since April 2023.

European Summary and Highlights 17 May
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:46 AM UTC

The USD was generally firmer through the European morning, with EUR/USD losing around 15 pips to 1.0845, USD/CAD rising 15 pips to 1.3640 and AUD/USD slipping 10 pips to 0.6655. 

Psychology for major markets May 17th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:10 AM UTC

Underlying USD tone remains a little negative as yields edge lower, despite modest rally today. EUR/CHF hitting new 1 year highs

This week's five highlights
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 10:00 AM UTC

This Week's Fed Speaker
U.S. April PPI Demonstrates Worrying strength
But U.S. CPI and Retail Sales are Seeing Some Loss of Momentum
UK Labor Market Shows Further Signs of Resilient Wage Pressure
Lopsided Growth and New Housing Measures For China

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 17th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 9:14 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

JPY, GBP flows: JPY soft, GBP awaits Mann speech
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 6:58 AM UTC

USD/JPY higher after Ueda and BoJ operations discourage tightening expectations. BoE hawk Mann has more power to weaken than strengthen GBP

Asia Summary and Highlights 17 May
Freemium Article

May 17, 2024 5:11 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says he has no immediate plan to sell the Bank's ETF holdings

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 17th
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 5:05 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

AUD/USD flows: Stronger dollar, weaker sentiment
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 5:02 AM UTC

China April y/y March Industrial output +6.7% and Retail sales +2.3%
China April new house prices -0.6% m/m 

USD/JPY flows: Following USD moves
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 4:36 AM UTC

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says he has no immediate plan to sell the Bank's ETF holdings

Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
Paying Article

May 17, 2024 12:00 AM UTC

EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform individually against the USD as the greenback followed the post CPI drop initially before rebounding in the New York session. KRW saw the largest gains of 1.79%, followed by THB 1.09%, IDR 0.65%, TWD 0.61%, MYR 0.5%, PHP 0.12% and HKD 0.11%; the biggest losers are

May 16, 2024

FX Daily Strategy: Asia, May 17th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 9:00 PM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

North American Summary and Highlights 16 May
Freemium Article

May 16, 2024 7:45 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was generally firmer, though most clearly so versus the JPY and CHF.  

Preview: Due May 23 - U.S. May S&P PMIs - Slippage seen, particularly in Manufacturing
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 3:26 PM UTC

We expect May’s S and P PMIs to show slippage, manufacturing quite significantly to 48.5 from 50.0, but services only marginally to 51.0 from 51.3. 

FX Daily Strategy: APAC, May 17th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 3:14 PM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

U.S. April Industrial Production - Underlying picture looks flat
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:31 PM UTC

April industrial production was unchanged with a downward revision to March offset by an upward revision to February. Manufacturing was weak at -0.3% though outside a negative correction in autos the drop was only 0.1%, leaving a fairly flat underlying picture. 

U.S. Initial Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed - No real surprises but consistent with a modest slowing
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 1:00 PM UTC

The latest data is all close to consensus, initial claims partially correcting a sharp rise last week, housing starts correcting a sharp fall last month but permits seeing a second straight dip while the Philly Fed corrected from a strong preceding month but remains positive.  All this is consisten

USD flows: USD continues recovery after data
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 12:59 PM UTC

The USD has extended gains after the claims and Philly Fed, but upside looks quite limited

European Summary and Highlights 16 May
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 10:46 AM UTC

The USD was generally firmer through the European morning, with EUR/USD losing around 15 pips to 1.0870 but USD/JPY seeing the biggest move, rising around 80 pips to 154.65.

Psychology for major markets May 16th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 10:08 AM UTC

USD softer post-CPI 

FX Daily Strategy: N America, May 16th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 8:59 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly weaker CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD dips on employment data but upside still favoured

USD, JPY, EUR, NOK flows: NOK and JPY remain attractive
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 6:33 AM UTC

The dip in the NOK after this morning's GDP data looks like a buying opportunity. JPY strength has further to go.

Asia Summary and Highlights 16 May
Freemium Article

May 16, 2024 5:10 AM UTC

Japan's annualized Q1 GDP -2.0% vs -1.5% expected
Australian April unemployment rate 4.1% vs. 3.9% expected

FX Daily Strategy: Europe, May 16th
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 5:05 AM UTC

USD to stay soft after mildly softer CPI
USD/JPY still has most scope for decline
EUR/JPY also looks overstretched
AUD unlikely to move far on employment data

AUD/USD flows: Mixed jobs report evaporize early gains
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 5:03 AM UTC

Australian April unemployment rate 4.1% vs. 3.9% expected

USD/JPY flows: Preliminary GDP Deep in the Red
Paying Article

May 16, 2024 4:48 AM UTC

Japan's annualized Q1 GDP -2.0% vs -1.5% expected

May 15, 2024

North American Summary and Highlights 15 May
Freemium Article

May 15, 2024 7:35 PM UTC

Overview - The USD was weaker in Europe, USD/JPY leading, and saw broader based losses in North America after softer than expected US CPI and retail sales data.